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Win Thin: Dollar Will Rise, Global Growth Will Slow
Written by HardAssetsInvestor.com   
November 26, 2008 12:01 am EST


Mike Norman, HardAssetsInvestor.com (Norman): Hello everybody, and welcome once again to HardAssetsInvestor.com's interview series. I'm Mike Norman, your host. Well, currency crises erupting around the world, emerging markets hit hard, even the vaunted euro has been hurt while the dollar is soaring; what does it all mean? Here to talk about it today is Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Win, thanks a lot for coming on the show; I appreciate it.

Win Thin, senior currency strategist, Brown Brothers Harriman (Thin): Thanks so much for having me.


Norman
: Well, it's been an unprecedented time. We've seen tremendous, tremendous volatility, extraordinary moves in foreign exchange markets, and some of it in emerging markets - which up until now have been thought to be pretty much impervious or decoupled from what is happening in the U.S. and some of the larger economies.

Talk about what's happening now in the big picture. We've seen some of these currencies drop dramatically against the dollar and some against the euro, while the yen is also very, very strong. What's going on?

Thin: Well Mike, you mentioned decoupling, which I think everyone agrees is pretty much a dead thesis. There's no such thing as decoupling in this whole globalized world. But the fact of the matter is that the strong emerging market's fundamentals really did allow them to withstand this crisis for quite a few months. It's only in the last couple months that they've really gotten swamped.

But I think it's a testament to how strong the emerging markets were, going into this crisis, and for once the crisis started in the developed world - it really wasn't from Brazil or Russia defaulting or something like that; it was really coming from the U.S. and the euro zone swamping the emerging markets.

What's interesting is the FX markets have really been sort of a sideline. All the problems, the turmoil has been in the credit markets, equity markets, only recently are they starting to get the currencies, especially the emerging market ones. It definitely has raised the risk as the emerging markets get drawn into it more, because a lot of the emerging markets are so weak.

Norman: But not just emerging markets. You look at, for example, British pounds, now down to the lowest level I think since currencies started to float back in 1971. The Australian dollar has also had an enormous move.

Up until now, in the last five or six years, Win, the story has been the weak dollar. All of sudden what has emerged from here is a dollar that is almost in short supply. We see investors around the world, I guess, with dollar liability, not having access to the dollars and pushing up the value of the U.S. dollar.

Thin: That's right; we've really seen almost a classic short squeeze. Really for the last - like you said - several years, it's been short the dollar, be long euro, be long emerging markets, be long commodities, and almost in a sense, a bubble in that market grew, a short dollar bubble. We're seeing a violent, violent take-back of that.

I don't think we're out of the woods yet. I do like a stronger dollar, but boy, it's been an incredible, violent move.

Norman: Let's talk about that, because throughout the last few years when the dollar was going down and commodity prices were going up, oil, gold - for example - wheat, corn … a lot of people were saying that because the dollar is weak, commodity prices are trending higher.



 

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